Morgan Stanley Forecasts 50,000 Humanoid Robots in China
Morgan Stanley began 2026 projecting China would ship 14,000 humanoid robots. By January, real order data pushed that to 28,000. That is nearly double the most recent projection and more than three times the starting estimate from six months ago. The bank now says China’s humanoid robot market will reach $2 billion this year and grow to $15 billion by 2030, with annual shipments hitting 446,000 units, a compound annual growth rate of 106 per cent from 2025 levels.
The commercial case is strengthening. State Grid Corporation of China placed a 6.8 billion yuan ($1 billion) order for thousands of robots, including 500 humanoid units. The deal signals a shift from testing to large-scale adoption. Meanwhile, SF Express and China Post have begun using Robotera’s humanoid robots in logistics centres. Morgan Stanley said rising demand, policy support, and expanding supply chains are driving growth. Component prices have also fallen 16% since January, reducing production costs.
The market remains uneven. Half-size robots like the Unitree G1 could make up 70% of 2026 shipments, while full-size humanoids remain harder to deploy. Morgan Stanley found that only 23% of Chinese firms were satisfied with current robots, and most buyers want prices below $28,000. China shipped about 12,000 humanoid robots in 2025. The bank now expects 50,000 units in 2026, up 133%. Upcoming events, including Tesla’s Optimus Gen 3 launch and Unitree’s IPO, could further lift forecasts.
