Ukraine Drones Force Russia to Cut Oil Output as Baltic Ports Shut Down

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Ukraine has knocked out at least 20% of Russia’s total oil export capacity through repeated drone strikes on the Baltic Sea ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk, with the disruption peaking at 40% in late March 2026.
Three industry sources told Reuters on April 2 that Russian oil production cuts are now unavoidable because Ukraine’s attacks have choked the Transneft pipeline system and filled storage to capacity.
Ust-Luga, which handles roughly 700,000 barrels of crude per day and about 32.9 million tonnes of oil products annually, suspended exports after being hit five times in ten days, with loading operations for the first half of April not expected to resume on schedule.
On the battlefield, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief reported that drone sorties rose by 55% in March compared to February, and that Ukrainian forces reclaimed 470 square kilometres of occupied territory this year, the first territorial gains since 2023.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed agreements with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar to export Ukrainian drone technology in exchange for joint production support, deepening Kyiv’s defence industrial partnerships.

Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russia’s oil export infrastructure has escalated into the most severe disruption of Russian energy since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, forcing Moscow toward unavoidable output cuts at a moment when it had been counting on a windfall from surging global oil prices driven by the conflict in Iran.

Three industry sources told Reuters on April 2 that Ukraine’s sustained strikes on the Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk, combined with attacks on domestic refineries and pre-existing pressure on the Druzhba pipeline, suspended since January, have reduced Russia’s total export capability by around one million barrels per day, or a fifth of its total capacity. As Ukrainian drones continue targeting export infrastructure and refineries, Russia’s pipeline operator Transneft notified exporters that Ust-Luga could not load oil in line with initial schedules due to recent damage, and that it was also unable to take in full oil volumes from producers. The pipeline system has become congested, and storage is filling up, the sources said. That means some oilfields will have to reduce their output to avoid flooding the system further.

Ust-Luga, situated on the south-eastern shore of the Gulf of Finland, was struck on March 22, 25, 27, 29, and 31, forcing repeated suspensions of export operations. The port typically handles around 700,000 barrels of crude per day and exported 32.9 million metric tonnes of oil products in 2025. The nearby terminal at Primorsk, which exported 16.8 million tonnes last year, was also hit multiple times. Bloomberg reported that Russian seaborne exports fell by approximately 1.75 million barrels per day in the week ending March 29, with flows tumbling to 2.32 million bpd, down from 4.07 million bpd the previous week. The two Baltic ports combined had been responsible for roughly 30â€“45% of Russia’s seaborne crude exports before the campaign began.

The timing directly undercut Russia’s war finances. Brent crude climbed from $70.71 a barrel on February 27 to above $108 by late March as the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran choked Persian Gulf supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and sent global oil markets into volatility. That surge briefly positioned Russia to earn an estimated $150 million a day in Baltic port revenues alone, according to Bloomberg. Independent oil analyst Boris Aronshtein described Ukraine’s strikes as the “most serious threat to exports of Russian oil” since 2022, citing the scale, precision, and timing of the attacks. The United States had also temporarily relaxed some sanctions on Russian crude in a bid to ease global energy pressure, a move Kyiv’s strikes have partially neutralised.

France 24, citing European energy specialist Agata Loskot-Strachota of the Centre for Eastern Studies in Warsaw, reported that the strikes reflect Ukraine’s deliberate strategy to create “military economic pressure” when external financial pressure on Moscow weakens. Jeff Hawn, a Russia specialist at the London School of Economics, told France 24 that Russia’s oil infrastructure is heavily concentrated in the country’s western regions, a legacy of the Soviet era when Western Europe was its primary market, making Primorsk and Ust-Luga particularly vulnerable chokepoints. With relatively low-cost drone weapons, Kyiv is hitting the Kremlin where it is most exposed: its revenue base. Russia’s oil and gas revenues account for roughly a quarter of state budget income.

The disruption carries diplomatic complications. Zelenskyy acknowledged on March 30 that some of Ukraine’s allies had sent signals asking Kyiv to scale back its long-range strikes on Russian oil, since any reduction in Russian export capacity tightens global supply in an already strained market. He did not name the partners. The export bottleneck at Ust-Luga has also affected Kazakhstan, which ships between 200,000 and 400,000 metric tonnes of KEBCO crude through that port each month. Seasonal refinery maintenance scheduled for March and April in Russia has compounded the problem: in a normal year Russia ramps up crude exports during this period to compensate for reduced domestic processing, but this year refinery shutdowns may instead deepen the surplus choking the pipeline system.

The energy campaign is unfolding alongside a turning point on the battlefield. Al Jazeera reported on April 3 that Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskii said first-person view drone combat sorties rose by nearly 55% in March compared to February, and that Ukraine had reclaimed 470 square kilometres of occupied territory in 2026, its first territorial gains since 2023. The Institute for the Study of War confirmed the liberation of at least 334 square kilometres, noting its conservative methodology likely understates the total. On March 26, Ukraine’s Air Assault Forces Command reported the elimination of a Russian advance near the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk border and the liberation of the village of Berezove. Syrskii noted that Russia continues to advance overall but at a dramatically slowed rate: from 14.9 square kilometres per day in late 2024 to just 5.5 square kilometres per day in the first quarter of 2026, a two-thirds reduction over 18 months.

Zelenskyy said on Friday that the front-line situation is “the best it has been in 10 months,” adding that a Russian offensive planned for March was thwarted by Ukrainian forces, though he warned that Moscow would now intensify assault operations in response. Ukraine has also concluded drone technology agreements with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and is in active talks with Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, and Bahrain, deals that will expand Kyiv’s drone production base at a time when drones now account for an estimated 90% of Russian battlefield casualties, according to Syrskii.