Anonymous Polymarket Bettor Nets $5M Profit Following Spain’s Surprise Draw
A mystery bettor on Polymarket is the talk of crypto trading circles after turning around $4 million into a staggering $9 million profit in a matter of hours, all thanks to one of the biggest upsets of the World Cup so far.
The wild swing happened after World Cup debutants Cabo Verde held tournament favorites and reigning European champions Spain to a goalless draw on Monday. The match had opened with odds stacked heavily against the minnows, at roughly 1:10, making the result one of the tournament’s most unexpected outcomes.
According to Polymarket data reviewed by CoinDesk, a brand-new wallet going by the name “fishalive,” created earlier this month, placed two well-timed wagers against Spain. The account bet that Spain would fail to win outright, and separately, that Cabo Verde would stay within a 2.5-goal spread. Both bets landed exactly as the wallet predicted when the final whistle blew on a scoreless draw.
The Polymarket trader redeemed about $4.7 million from the Spain market and another $8.5 million from the spread bet, bringing the account’s one-day profit to roughly $9 million, on-chain analytics firm Lookonchain reported.
Not everyone walked away smiling. On the other end of the trade, an account called “betoor619” lost close to $1 million after putting nearly $1.1 million on a Spain win, at a time when the market had priced Spain’s chances at around 92%. Had Spain actually won, the payout would have been a modest $85,000, a reminder of how thin the rewards can be when betting on heavy favorites. Notably, that account had never previously won or lost more than $9,000 on a single event.
Polymarket allows users to trade on real-world outcomes using crypto wallets and pseudonymous identities, with all bets settled in the stablecoin USDC on a public blockchain. That structure has drawn criticism from lawmakers, since the platform doesn’t collect the identifying information traditional sportsbooks are required to gather.
Still, the same blockchain transparency that enables anonymous betting also leaves a fully public trail. Roughly $64 million was traded on the Spain-Cabo Verde match alone, while Polymarket’s market on the overall World Cup winner has pulled in about $2.4 billion, making it the platform’s biggest event since last year’s U.S. election and even surpassing the roughly $1.4 billion wagered on this year’s Super Bowl.
The size and timing of fishalive’s win against a 92% favorite has fueled speculation online over whether the trade was a brilliant read of the game or something else entirely. For now, the wallet’s identity remains unknown, but its trading history is fully public, and likely to be watched closely for its next move.
